Bucks vs. Celtics Game 7 NBA Picks: Which Eastern Conference Powerhouse Will Prevail?

The Boston Celtics have looked like the better team as this Eastern Conference semifinals series has gone on. Is it worth laying a pretty rich point spread with the home team in Sunday’s do-or-die Game 7, or can the Milwaukee Bucks cover? Find out with our Bucks-Celtics picks.
The first of two NBA playoffs winner-take-all Game 7 matchups on Sunday pits the Bucks up against the Celtics.
The defending NBA champions (5-6 against the spread, 2-9 Over/Under) squandered their opportunity to clinch a spot in the Eastern Conference finals on their home floor in Game 6. After stealing Game 5 in Boston, Milwaukee got outclassed from the start on Friday night. Giannis Antetokounmpo (44 points, 20 rebounds) was spectacular, but the rest of the Bucks failed to step up in a close-out opportunity.
On the other hand, the Celtics (7-3 ATS, 4-6 O/U) couldn’t have played much better in Game 6 with their backs against the wall. Jayson Tatum exploded for 46 points, and both Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart eclipsed the 20-point threshold, as the Celtics’ top players came up clutch to force a Game 7. Boston led by two after the first quarter and only extended that lead heading into halftime. After outplaying Milwaukee in Game 5 only to blow a fourth-quarter lead, the C’s will seek a better result in front of their home crowd on Sunday.
Bucks vs. Celtics Odds Analysis:
The biggest line move ahead of Sunday’s Game 7 battle has come on the total. Oddsmakers initially opened the Over/Under at 210. Sharp action has driven that number down in a big way. At the time of writing, several books have dropped as low as 205.5. While most others are at 206, bettors can still lock in an Under play at 206.5 by shopping the odds carefully.
The point spread has stayed much more consistent from opening until now for this Game 7 showdown. The Celtics were originally tabbed as 5.5-point favorites on their home floor. The market continues to hold firm at this spread. However, several prominent sportsbooks have also ticked down a half-point to Boston -5.
Interestingly enough, the Bucks are trending toward being publicly backed underdogs. At the time of writing, 68% of all against the spread tickets have taken Milwaukee plus the points.
 

Bucks vs. Celtics Predictions

Bucks +5.5 (-115)

Backing the Bucks ATS is a far cry from getting behind the defending champs to win Game 7 outright. As the series has gone on, the Celtics have made more adequate adjustments and have clearly been the better team.
The Bucks miss Khris Middleton more the longer this series goes. One of the greatest strengths of the post-trade-deadline Celtics is their depth and versatility. Playing against the Boston defense over a seven-game series is nothing but an arduous grind.
If there was ever a game in which that grind seemed to get the better of the Bucks, it was Game 6. Aside from Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee’s offense was in shambles. The “Greek Freak” accounted for 44 of the Bucks’ 95 total points. Jrue Holiday and Pat Connaughton were the only other Bucks players who managed to score in double figures.
While the Celtics are the deeper team in terms of playmakers, one can’t overlook the fact that Milwaukee still has a tremendous advantage inside. Only once in this series has Boston actually outscored the Bucks in the paint.
A bounce-back game offensively from Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez is critical for the Bucks to have a shot in Game 7. It’s hard to envision that duo being any worse than they were in Game 6. Add in the fact that Milwaukee still has the best player on the floor in Antetokounmpo, and a 5.5-point spread is simply too rich to pass up.

Under 206.5 (-110)

Of the six games played thus far, four of them have stayed Under 206.5 total points. Throw in the fact that defensive intensity will be at an all-time high from both sides in this decisive Game 7, and betting Under the total is the preferred play.
As noted above, the Celtics have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA all season, particularly since the All-Star break. Boston ranks second in defensive efficiency, and though the Bucks rank only 14th in that category, their personnel enables them to protect the paint against a smaller Celtics team.
The Bucks have been one of the weaker perimeter defenses in the Association this season. This is actually by design. Milwaukee is largely content to give up a higher number of 3-point shot attempts in favor of guarding the interior. Assuming they defend the rim adequately, this total could come down to how effective Boston is shooting from beyond the arc.
In a series that has been a grind throughout, it’s no shock that the total has plummeted from the opening number. With many sportsbooks listing the O/U a full point lower than PointsBets’ offering, the choice for bettors should be clear.

White Over 3.5 rebounds (-145)

As this series has gone on, White has seen his playing time steadily increase. The Celtics’ trade-deadline acquisition has been on the floor for 30-plus minutes in each of the last three games. Though he is hardly one of Boston’s primary scoring threats, White has certainly made an impact in other areas, most notably on the defensive end.
Among White’s defensive contributions has been a steady rate of production on the glass. The former Colorado star secured five total rebounds in Game 6. This marked the second game in a row that White corralled five boards. It was also the fifth time in the Eastern Conference semifinals that he managed to eclipse this line of 3.5 rebounds.
White averaged 3.4 rebounds per game this season. Given the disadvantages the Celtics face in this series when it comes to size, Boston has had to take an all-hands-on-deck approach when it comes to rebounding. Never one to shy away from contact, White has made an impact and has seen an uptick in minutes as a result.